Okay, so the title and its reference to the war won’t have been missed by the observant reader. In using such a title I want you to think of a time of brave deeds and unity amongst the good people of many nations in overcoming oppression. A time for bold decisions and creativity that led to British firms such as Supermarine, Hawker, Avro, De Havilland and Fairey creating aircraft of world renown.
Some may consider my reference to war crass but I beg to differ, so let me explain my reasoning. My paternal grandfather flew for the Royal Air Force during the war in the ‘Wooden Wonder’ De Havilland Mosquito (the aircraft pictured above) and my maternal grandfather was one of ‘Paddy’s Men’ in the SAS. Both fought alongside many others to ensure our current freedom, including a right to reasonable free speech, and the narrative that follows is thanks to those brave people and those that supported them.
The metaphor has been chosen as I wanted for firstly draw attention to the aircraft industry Britain once had, but is no more. Parts remain such as those within Rolls-Royce plc, BAe Systems as well as Airbus, but in the present day no sovereign aircraft manufacturer of scale exists in Britain. You and I have an opportunity to change that as I will come onto later.
The metaphor was also chosen to add gravity to the grand vision I painted in my article last year on the fourth mass rapid transport revolution (i.e. locomotives, motor vehicles, airliners and now eVTOL aircraft) that will take various acts of courage to achieve as a nation, by government ministers and civil servants, business leaders and investors alike, rather than leaving the opportunity to foreign entities as is so often the case in modern Britain. I have not lost my ancestral courage, have you?
Courage to back a British based aviation firm that has the potential to be a world leader in a nascent industry that could one day be vast. And according to Morgan Stanley a $1.5 trillion market by 2040. A market that due to apparently favourable operational costs, low noise profile and zero emissions could well provide a new method of rapid mass transport for the many, not just the few. An industry that could benefit so many other industries such as travel, tourism and logistics.
In my opinion, it will require courage from government ministers and civil servants. Courage to take bold decisions to ensure we do not lose this promising catalyst for growth and clean electric transport to foreign bidders. We must retain sovereignty otherwise future generations will look back aghast at those who squandered an opportunity to secure a potential world leader with innovation and highly skilled manufacturing at its heart.
In my opinion, it will require courage from business leaders. Courage to ally ones business with Vertical Aerospace in its mission to make the giant leap towards a cleaner, faster, quieter future, while one day possibly sharing the potential profits of a vast future market. With existing domestic and international allies such as GKN, Leonardo, Dassault Systems and Honeywell there lies an opportunity for a visionary business leader to reinforce and potentially profit substantially from that alliance by becoming part of it.
In my opinion, it will require courage from investors. Courage from both professionals and retail investors alike, to see the opportunity despite the dark clouds formed of uncertainty in a troubled world. Courage to take a stake in a business without the certainty of success, but one which offers hope of a better future and rich rewards to not only profit, but to know you helped usher in that better future.
Okay, so let’s consider a possible framework for achieving this courageous feat…
Firstly, in the coming weeks I expect to see the successful completion of transition flight tests for Vertical Aerospace’s VX4 prototype aircraft. As Stuart Simpson, CEO of Vertical Aerospace, recently said; ‘And the big unlock we talked about is transition. Once you’ve done that, you’ve proved out the whole concept of the aircraft literally, then I’m shrink wrapping it and certifying it.’¹
As part of this process I hope to see retail and more adventurous professional investors playing a part. Through buying shares, like my better half and I, of Vertical Aerospace (NYSE: EVTL) I would expect all things being equal for the share price to rise, as that is the dynamics of supply and demand with a scarce resource (i.e. a currently fixed number of shares). That as I have outlined in a recent post, about Why Vertical Aerospace is Worth Possibly Over 13x its Current Price, will hopefully see a share price comfortably above $7.00 by late 2025. Weeks away.
This then potentially unlocks an opportunity in early 2026 for the British government to become a keystone investor by investing $250 million (≈21% stake at a $7 placing price in a firm subsequently valued at about $1.2 billion) while also taking up a golden share to ensure future sovereignty of this strategic national asset.
This would in turn hopefully unlock matched financing of $250 million from a strategic business partner or partners. I admit I have a soft spot for Jaguar Land Rover for various reasons, including that my grandfather went on to work for them after the war as a draughtsman, but also for reasons such as synergies in geographic location, mass production expertise and their plans for a gigafactory in Somerset, close to Vertical’s centre of operations in Bristol.
BAe Systems would be another prime candidate for various reasons including the potential for Vertical’s anticipated hybrid eVTOL, with longer range and higher payload, having significant potential for the defence industry with its relatively low noise and thermal signature profile lending itself to special forces operations, or one day autonomous logistics away from the front lines for example. I also like the thought of Rolls-Royce being involved given their aviation heritage and first class manufacturing setup. Perhaps a combination of all three may be a possibility.
Should that come to pass, I suspect many investors will probably be thinking right now, but what about the dilution!? Well, that is something I willingly accept since a well financed firm with the potential to achieve commercialisation in H2 2028 offers the prospect of 5x to 10x even after dilution in the medium term in my opinion. Especially when you consider that an effective market capitalisation of about $1.2 billion would still be currently far less than US peers Archer Aviation ($5.2b), BETA Technologies ($7.3b) and Joby Aviation ($13.5b).
To finish, it seems clear to me that a generational opportunity presents itself to our nation. An opportunity for potential British and allied air superiority. A European eVTOL aviation champion of the near future. The only question is, will our government and business leaders have the courage to grasp it?
P.S. If you like the look of the De Havilland Mosquito above please consider a donation to The People’s Mosquito project. A charity established with the aim of returning a British-built Mosquito to the skies.
